Geo-green? No Magic Bullet!

6/23/05
Thomas L. Friedman,in his NYT column reprinted June 19th in the Mpls Star Tribune, once again displays his ignorance. He, like most Lefties, makes it all so simple. His column is Entitled: "U.S. should get started down the geo-green path." He begins:

"So I have a question: If I am rooting for General Motors to go bankrupt and be bought out by Toyota, does that make me be a bad person?"

"It is not that I want any autoworker to lose his or her job, but I certainly would not put on a blcck tie if the entire management team at GM got sacked and was replaced by executive teams from Toyota. I think the only hope for GM's autoworkers, and maybe this country is with Toyota."

He goes on to castigate GM's gas guzzlers "including the idiot Hummer", and extols the virtues of Toyota's hybrid cars.

"Because Toyota has pioneered the very hybrid engine technology that can help rescue not only our economy from its oil addiction (how about 500 miles per gallon of gasoline?), but also our foreign policy from dependence on Middle Eastern oil autocrats."

It was this 500 miles per gallon that got my attention. Seems that I've heard of hybrid cars getting 50 mpg or so. Way back in 1990, GM was marketing the GEO Metro. It was tiny. Under the hood, it was amazingly roomy and uncluttered. Looked like a dream to work on. Seems that it got 58 mpg hwy--competitive with the Prius, but priced comparatively many, many thousands less. Some people loved them for long commutes. They went extinct during the early 90's for lack of demand, but--Friedman gets in the obligatory Bush-bashing:

"The Bush team has been MIA on energy since 9/11. Indeed, the utter indifference of the Bush team to developing a geo-green strategy -- which would also strengthen the dollar, reduce our trade deficit, make America the world leader in combating climate change and stimulate U.S. companies to take the lead in producing the green technologies that the world will desperately need as China and India industrialize -- is so irresponsible that it takes your breath away. This is especially true when you realize that the solutions to our problems are already here".

"Diffusing Toyota's hybrid technology is one of the keys to what I call "geo-green." Geo-greens seek to combine into a single political movement environmentalists who want to reduce fossil fuels that cause climate change, religious folks who want to protect God's green earth and all his creations, and geo-strategists who want to reduce our dependence on crude oil because it fuels some of the worst regimes in the world."

He goes on to propose a potential solution. That solution however, is not bad--for a beginner. Shows he's trying. It however, presents a number of problems. To resurrect a hoary old phrase, "The Devil is in the details."

"As Gal Luft, cochairman of the Set America Free coalition, a bipartisan alliance of national security, labor, environmental and religious groups that believe reducing oil consumption is a national priority, points out: The majority of U.S. oil imports go to fueling the transport sector -- primarily cars and trucks. Therefore, the key to reducing our dependence on foreign oil is powering our cars and trucks with less petroleum".

"There are two ways we can do that. One is electricity. We don't import electricity. We meet all of our needs with coal, hydropower, nuclear power and natural gas. Toyota's hybrid cars, like the Prius, run on both gasoline and electricity that is generated by braking and then stored in a small battery. But, says Luft, if you had a hybrid that you could plug in at night, the battery could store up 20 miles of driving per day. So your first 20 miles would be covered by the battery. The gasoline would only kick in after that. Since 50 percent of Americans do not drive more than 20 miles a day, the battery would cover all their driving. Even if they drove more than that, combining the battery power and the gasoline could give them 100 miles per gallon of gasoline used, Luft notes".

"Right now Toyota does not sell plug-in hybrids. Imagine, though, if the government encouraged, through tax policy and other incentives, every automaker to offer plug-in hybrids? We would quickly move down the innovation curve and end up with better and cheaper plug-ins for all."

A "small battery": Rest assured that the battery(s) in a current Prius are not small, nor light, nor inexpensive. I haven't seen a Prius battery bank, but can assure the reader that it will be several times the size, weight, and cost, of that in a conventional auto. What is the expected life and replacement cost of the current battery(s)? Are they recyclable?

[UPDATE 1: A visit to my local Toyota dealer confirms the above. According to the salesman, the current NiMH (Nickel-Metal Hydride) battery is four to five times the size (and weight) of a large conventional car battery. It's cost is about $2200. The Prius brochure states an expected 8 yr, 150,000 miles hybrid (not electric) operation. It claims an average 55 mpg, city/hwy. The salesman said that you might get 20 miles from it on battery, if you didn't go over 10 mph, but might kill it in the process. So much for this "small battery."When asked about gas mileage, he said, "28 to 40", much less than stated in the brochure.]

I'm trying to imagine the battery banks that it would take to propel a heavy truck, and then consider how many trucks will be only involved in that 20 mile commute. Seems that with current batteries, you wouldn't have much capacity left for payload. So much for trucks in this scenario. Note that there have been hybrid city buses in operation for years.

The Greens of a generation ago worshiped at the altar of the Electric Car. Those cars had/have to lug perhaps half their weight in batteries, further limiting their range and performance. Touted as Zero Emissions, they only exported their pollution to the power plants, which likely were dirtier than conventinal cars. The Plugable Prius would export some/most of that pollution the same way.

Battery technology has come a long way in the last several years, but is yet a long way from accomplishing the stated goal of plugability in a small, light, affordable package. So then, Plugability awaits the development of that new small battery. So much for now for that effective 100 mpg of gasoline. I trust that the writers will contribute their expertise to this development.

To propel a Prius 20 miles, without the non-existent new,small battery, it would take much larger, heavier, more expensive batteries than presently incorporated [Update2: I'd guess at least 4-5 more of the present NiMH batteries, for adequate performance.] More cost, weight, less efficiency and available space. With such luxuries as headlights, heaters, and air-conditioning, the goal recedes further. Who, in sub-zero weather, wouldn't choose to burn gasoline, rather than freezing? Who in mid-summer Phoenix, would eschew the use of his/her air-conditioner?

Another question concerning the "Plugable Prius" , that the advocates of electric cars failed to consider a generation ago: Will the existing, already shaky, power grid stand up to millions upon millions of them plugged in overnight? Although nighttime may presently be "off-peak", with massive new loading, there would likely be no "off peak." Power companies cannot sustain peak loads for extended periods. How long before widespread nighttime "power-shedding" to prevent massive blackouts?

Is/are the writer(s) aware that all newer fossil-fueled power plants are gas fired? That older, dirtier coal and oil burning plants have been/are being converted to the cleaner natural gas? That these all compete for natural gas in the marketplace, both availability and price-wise, with the home heating market? The Commercial/Industrial/ Manufacturing and Chemical markets? That LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) is/will be imported?

Will Leftists, Greens, and NIMBY's cease their obstruction of the stabilization and improvement of our existing electrical power infrastructure, including transmission lines, hydropower, coal, and Nuclear? Of drilling for oil, and natural gas?

We still havn't seen the magic 500 miles per gallon that first caught my attention. Here goes.

"Then add to that flexible-fuel cars, which have a special chip and fuel line that enable them to burn alcohol (ethanol or methanol), gasoline or any mixture of the two. Some 4 million U.S. cars already come equipped this way, including from GM. It costs only about $100 a car to make it flex-fuel ready. Brazil hopes to have all its new cars flex-fuel ready by 2008. As Luft notes, if you combined a plug-in hybrid system with a flex-fuel system that burns 80 percent alcohol and 20 percent gasoline, you could end up stretching each gallon of gasoline up to 500 miles".

"In short, we don't need to reinvent the wheel or wait for sci-fi hydrogen fuel cells. The technologies we need for a stronger, more energy independent America are already here. The only thing we have a shortage of now are leaders with the imagination and will to move the country onto a geo-green path."

Since we've already established that the Plugable Prius is not doable with current technology, and not foreseeable, so much for that 500 miles per gallon. What we are left with is: Is a flex-fueled Prius available? (50 mpg hwy or so on gas, less on alcohol)

Is a massive conversion to ethanol feasible for millions of barrels per day? What is current production capacity? I doubt that presently, it is not nearly adequate to such a challenge. How many billions of bushels of corn will be required?

In this state there already is a mandate for 10% ethanol during the summer months, as an oxygenate. It doesn't pollute as does MTBE. The Legislature is talking about boosting that to 20 %.

Note however; that the use of ethanol results in a net energy loss. It takes more total energy to produce the ethanol than it yields in return. The diesel to plow, plant, harvest, and transport the corn and resultant ethanol. And mostly, natural gas is used for the distilling process. Quite obviously, we need much more Bio-diesel.

I'm all for flex-fueled cars, but in my travels thus far, I've seen only one E-85 pump. (85% Ethanol) The price was somewhat cheaper, but mileage is less than for gas. Many more pumps are needed to effect any significant difference.

Having enumerated some of the "Details", wherein the Devil resides, and also illustrating "The Law of Unintended Consequences" it becomes my task to offer some observations that I think will help the situation.

The writers were right about one thing: GEO! Geo-green yes, but as in GEO Metro. Those old Evil, or new Righteous, GM Executives should bring back an updated, multi-fueled, GEO Metro. With gas prices being what they are, and likely going out of sight, the American People will take a fresh look at it, and similar small cars. At half the price of a Prius, "plugable" or not. The old Metro was imported, as likely would be a new one.

Despite the drawbacks of alcohol as a fuel, increased usage is desirable, to take pressure off imports and refineries, and to prevent/alleviate gas shortages. With high gas prices, and potential shortages, many people would spend a little more to buy a flex-fuel car. If inexpensive flex-fuel retrofits were available for existing cars, many people would install them. With more flex-fuel cars, there will be more E-85 pumps to be found.

In summary: Things are almost always more complex than they might seem. the Pluggable Prius isn't a bad idea, but is not doable with current batteries, without adding excessive weight, bulk, and cost. Consequently, Gal Luft and Tom Friedman won't be solving the oil import problem this week. As they state, every gallon of alcohol burned instead of gasoline will help. It will also generate domestic economic activity in the process.

Also as stated by Friedman;we need some leadership. People need to be reminded of the gas lines of the 70's and 80's, and be made aware that we could be facing similar or worse situations at any time. Perhaps he and Luft, who "inspired" this piece, could provide some of that.

[Emphasis, throughout this post is mine.]